Contingency Is Not a Guess: How U.S. Engineering Projects Are Losing Money Before Work Even Begins
Across American engineering projects, risk contingency is routinely treated as a budgetary formality — a round number appended to a cost estimate rather than a rigorously derived figure. The consequences are predictable and expensive. This article examines how data-driven contingency modeling is replacing guesswork, and why project owners who ignore the difference will keep absorbing costs they should have anticipated.